SINGAPORE -
Media OutReach Newswire - 14 March 2025 - DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business have released the latest
DHL Trade Atlas 2025,
providing a comprehensive analysis of the most important trends in
global trade. The report reveals that Asia's trade outlook remains
positive, mirroring global trade, which is forecast to grow faster over
the next five years compared to the preceding decade. In fact, a few
countries in Asia – India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines – are
expected to see especially strong growth. The South Asia as well as
Southeast Asia regions are also set to outperform other regions in terms
of trade growth.
"As we look towards the future of trade in Asia, it's clear how trade
growth has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of recent
disruptions. With the ongoing diversification of supply chains that
continues to reshape the commerce landscape, Asia has steadfastly
emerged as a key player in the global market," said
Ken Lee, CEO – Asia Pacific, DHL Express. "However, we must
approach this promising outlook with a measured perspective, recognizing
the uncertainties and volatility that continue to characterize the
global business environment. As businesses diversify supply chains, it
is essential they stay innovative in their strategy and proactive in
seeking out new routes to growth."
New leaders in trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines
Between 2024 and 2029, four countries in Asia are forecast to rank among
the top 30 for both speed (growth rate) and scale (absolute amount) of
trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
In the next five years,
India is anticipated to retain its third-place rank on the scale dimension as well as jump 15 spots to the 17
th
position on the speed dimension as its compound annual trade volume
growth rate rises from 5.2% to 7.2%. Additionally, India may also
deliver 6% of the world's trade growth, behind China (12%) and the
United States (10%).
The prospects of Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are bright as
they have displayed substantial potential to benefit from supply chain
shifts and diversification strategies.
Vietnam is expected to maintain a 6.5% compound annual trade
volume growth rate over the 2024-2029 period and promote one position to
rank fifth on the scale dimension.
Indonesia is predicted to retain its 12
th place on the scale rankings, while rising from 33
rd to 25
th in the speed rankings. More notably, the
Philippines is set to leap 114 positions to rank 15
th on the speed dimension, and rise from 68
th to 30
th on the scale dimension.
South Asia and ASEAN to produce faster growth rates than other regions
South Asia and the ASEAN regions are forecasted to deliver the fastest
trade volume growth among major world regions from 2024 to 2029 with
CAGR of 5.6% and 5.0%, respectively. In fact, trade growth is also
expected to accelerate substantially compared to the previous five-year
period in these regions. Other regions such as North America and Europe
are forecast to grow at rates of 2.7%.
The DHL Trade Atlas also finds that the center of gravity of world trade
has shifted. The shares of trade conducted by the world's major
geographic regions has changed since 2000, with the most dramatic change
observed in Asian economies. Between 2000 and 2024, the share of world
trade borne by South & Central Asia rose from 2% to 5%. However, a
major region like Europe saw its share of world trade decrease from 41%
to 36% for the same period.
New record in long-distance trade as Asia becomes central to global production networks
Despite widespread interest in nearshoring and producing goods closer to
customers, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 demonstrates that trade has not
become more regionalized overall. Actual trade flows indicate the
opposite trend. In the first nine months of 2024, the average distance
traversed for all traded goods reached a record 5,000 kilometers,
compared to just over 4,500 kilometers in 2000. This development can be
attributed to the fact that Europe and North America have increasingly
traded with Asia, as "Factory Asia" becomes central to global production
networks.
Faster global trade growth compared to the previous decade
Recent forecasts predict goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate
of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029. This roughly aligns with GDP growth and
represents modestly faster trade growth compared to the previous decade.
Even if the new U.S. administration implements all of its proposed
tariff increases and other countries retaliate, global trade is still
expected to grow over the next five years – but at a much slower pace.
"While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously,
global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits
that it delivers for economies and societies," said
Steven A. Altman, Senior Research Scholar and Director of the
DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern's
Center for the Future of Management. "While the U.S. could pull back
from trade – at a significant cost – other countries are not likely to
follow the U.S. down that path because smaller countries would suffer
even more in a global retreat from trade."
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 features a wealth of data-driven insights and
analysis on global trade and its prospects. It is an up-to-date resource
for business leaders, policymakers, educators, students, media, and the
interested public. It includes concise one-page profiles summarizing
the trade patterns of nearly 200 countries and territories that comprise
over 99% of world trade, GDP, and population.
The free interactive content available at
dhl.com/tradeatlas
is a new feature of the report. The website enables users to customize
analyses and explore trade trends by specific countries, regions, and
categories of goods. Additionally, it offers convenient options for
downloading data and images.
The report was commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and
Caroline R. Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business. It
was finalized in February 2025 using data and forecast updates through
January 2025.
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