HONG KONG SAR -
Media OutReach Newswire - 17 March 2025 - DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business have released the
DHL Trade Atlas 2025,
providing a comprehensive analysis of the most important trends in
global trade. Hong Kong has attained top spots globally, indicating its
strength in trade value and volume in nearly 200 countries and
territories around the world.
Hong Kong
ranks seventh in total trade value in 2024, amounting to US$1.3 trillion.
The report also indicates two dimensions of forecast trade growth:
speed, which captures how fast a market's trade volume is expanding; and
scale, which tracks the absolute change in the amount of goods traded
by a market.
Hong Kong has secured the sixth spot globally on the scale dimension – amounting to US$212.7 billion,
from 2024 to 2029, together with other growing Asian markets, such as
India and Vietnam. Hong Kong is forecast to maintain a 3.1% compound
annual trade volume growth rate over the 2024 – 2029 period.
According to the report, Hong Kong's top export destination from 2018 to
2023 was mainland China (57 percent), followed by the United States
(6.8 percent) and India (3.1 percent). Meanwhile, nearly half of the
city's import within the same period came from mainland China (43
percent). Eight out of the top ten of Hong Kong's export and import
destinations from 2018 to 2023 were within Asia or in the Middle East.
"Hong Kong, recognized as a leading international financial and trade
hub, has demonstrated strength in both trade value and volume," said
Andy Chiang, Senior Vice President and Managing Director - Hong Kong and Macau, DHL Express.
"As trade within Asia increases, Hong Kong serves as a vital gateway
between mainland China and the rest of the world, maintaining strong
connections with its Asian counterparts. We are well-positioned to meet
the rising trade demand through recent strategic investments, including
the inauguration of our
Hong Kong West Service Center, the
expansion of the Central Asia Hub at Hong Kong International Airport, and new direct flights from Hong Kong to
Jakarta and
Sydney. These initiatives will enable us to better serve our customers and capitalize on the growing opportunities in the region."
Key Takeaways: Unveiling Growth, Transformative Shifts, and the Impact of Trade Policies
The DHL Trade Atlas measures changes in countries' and regions' shares of world trade. Among the key take-aways:
- - Faster trade growth, greater uncertainty: Recent
forecasts predict global goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate
of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029. This roughly aligns with GDP growth and
represents modestly faster trade growth compared to the previous decade.
However, record high uncertainty about future trade policies clouds the
outlook.
-
- Trump tariff impact: Even if the new U.S. administration
implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries
retaliate, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five
years – but at a much slower pace.
-
- Made-in-China content finding new routes to U.S.: Direct
U.S.–China trade has fallen from 3.5% of world trade in 2016 to 2.6%
over the first nine months of 2024. However, U.S. reliance on
made-in-China content has not declined substantially. U.S. imports from
other countries contain more inputs from China, and U.S. direct imports
from China may be underreported.
-
- New record in long-distance trade
as Asia becomes central to global production networks: Contrary
to predictions that recent disruptions would lead to more regionalized
trade patterns, trade took place over the longest average distance on
record during the first nine months of 2024 (5,000 km). The share taking
place inside major geographic regions declined to a new low (51%). This
development can be attributed to the fact that Europe and North America
have increasingly traded with Asia, as "Factory Asia" becomes central
to global production networks.
-
- New leaders in trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines:
Between 2024 and 2029, these four countries are forecast to rank among
the top 30 for both speed (growth rate) and scale (absolute amount) of
trade growth. India also stands out as the country with the third
largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional
global trade), behind China (12%) and the United States (10%).
-
- Global geopolitical shifts limited: Geopolitically driven
shifts in global trade patterns remain limited and appear to have
stalled in 2024. While trade between blocs of close allies declined
relative to trade within these blocs in 2022 and 2023, there were no
further declines over the first nine months of 2024.
-
- Standout regions: At the level of major world regions, the
fastest trade volume growth from 2024 to 2029 is forecast for South
& Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the ASEAN countries – with
compound annual growth rates between 5% and 6%. All other regions are
forecast to grow at rates of 2% to 4%.
Reasons for optimism in the face of U.S. policy shifts
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 outlines several reasons for optimism about the
future of global trade despite a turn toward more restrictive U.S.
trade policies. Most countries continue to pursue trade as a key
economic opportunity, and U.S. trade barriers could strengthen ties
among other countries. Also, many of Trump's tariff threats may end up
different than originally proposed or delayed to prevent a spike in
domestic inflation. Moreover, the U.S. share of world imports currently
stands at 13%, and its share of exports is 9% – enough for U.S. policies
to have substantial effects on other countries but not enough to
unilaterally determine the future of global trade.
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 features a wealth of data-driven insights and
analysis on global trade and its prospects. It is an up-to-date resource
for business leaders, policymakers, educators, students, media, and the
interested public. It includes concise one-page profiles summarizing
the trade patterns of nearly 200 countries and territories that comprise
over 99% of world trade, GDP, and population.
The free interactive content available at
dhl.com/tradeatlas
is a new feature of the report. The website enables users to customize
analyses and explore trade trends by specific countries, regions, and
categories of goods. Additionally, it offers convenient options for
downloading data and images.
The report was commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and
Caroline R. Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business. It
was finalized in February 2025 using data and forecast updates through
January 2025.
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 is available at
dhl.com/tradeatlas.
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