ZURICH, SWITZERLAND - Media OutReach - 20 October
2020 - Amidst the chaos created by the covid-19 pandemic and the
various policy responses designed to contain its spread, the usual loose
grouping of malicious opportunists is exploiting new vulnerabilities:
individual criminals, organised crime networks and international terrorist
organisations. Lasting
effects: How the covid-19 pandemic will change illicit trade, a report from The Economist Intelligence
Unit, supported by Philip Morris International, cover these and other related
issues, concluding with a series of recommendations for both the public and
private sector.
The five lasting effects
The first lasting effect is that the pandemic is accelerating a long-term shift in demand for certain commodities. The economic impact on employment, earnings and disposable incomes around the world will force consumers to look for cheaper alternatives, increasing demand for counterfeits and other illicit products.
The second effect is that the new markets for illicit goods are here to stay. Even if export controls on personal protective equipment (PPE) are eased, for example, the damage has been done--once criminals introduce new products into illicit markets, they find a way to stay.
The third effect is another acceleration of an existing trend: the shift to e-commerce platforms. E-commerce was already providing a strong sales channel before the pandemic. Now, with the increased volumes of goods being ordered on-line for citizens around the world stuck at home due to lockdowns, criminals have even more cover to sell their goods.
The fourth lasting effect is on delivery routes and supply chains. Supply chain disruptions can affect illicit traders just as much as they do their counterparts in licit trade. It also created new opportunities, particularly as customs organisations have become overwhelmed by volume of small parcels and as governments seek to fast-track shipments related to the fight against the pandemic.
The fifth and final effect concerns wildlife trafficking. Whatever the means of transmission, the covid-19 is widely-agreed to be zoonotic in origin. There is hope that this will finally compel countries at the centre of the trade, whether on the supply or demand side, to take action.
Recommendations. Trends gathered from studies and expert interviews so far point to critical long-term impacts of the pandemic on illicit trade. The report concludes with three key recommendations.
Chris Clague, the editor of the report,
says: "The pandemic has provided new opportunities for organised crime networks
and international terrorist networks on which they wasted no time capitalising.
Law enforcement and the private sector will fall further behind if they don't
at the same improve their efforts to collaborate and develop closer
partnerships to combat the trade."
About The Economist Intelligence Unit
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About Philip Morris International
Philip Morris International (PMI) is leading a transformation in the tobacco industry to create a smoke-free future and ultimately replace cigarettes with smoke-free products to the benefit of adults who would otherwise continue to smoke, society, the company, and its shareholders. PMI is a leading international tobacco company engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes, as well as smoke-free products and associated electronic devices and accessories, and other nicotine-containing products in markets outside the United States. PMI ships a version of its smoke-free devices and consumables authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to Altria Group, Inc. for sale in the United States under license. PMI is building a future on a new category of smoke-free products that, while not risk-free, are a much better choice than continuing to smoke. Through multidisciplinary capabilities in product development, state-of-the-art facilities, and scientific substantiation, PMI aims to ensure that its smoke-free products meet adult consumer preferences and rigorous regulatory requirements. For more information, please visit www.pmi.com.